Stagnation In Life Expectancy Research Articles

Younger but sicker? Cohort trends in disease accumulation among middle-aged and older adults in Scotland using health-linked data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study.

In the United Kingdom, rising prevalence of multimorbidity-the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions- is coinciding with stagnation in life expectancy. We investigate patterns of disease accumulation and how they vary by birth cohort, social and environmental inequalities in Scotland, a country which has long suffered from excess mortality and poorer health outcomes relative to its neighbours. Using a dataset which links census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 to disease registers and hospitalization data, we follow cohorts of adults aged 30-69 years for 18 years. We model physical and mental disease accumulation using linear mixed-effects models. Recent cohorts experience higher levels of chronic disease accumulation compared to their predecessors at the same ages. Moreover, in more recently born cohorts we observe socioeconomic status disparities emerging earlier in the life course, which widen over time and with every successive cohort. Patterns of chronic conditions are also changing, and the most common diseases suffered by later born cohorts are cancer, hypertension, asthma, drug and alcohol problems and depression. We recommend policies which target prevention of chronic disease in working age adults, considering how and why certain conditions are becoming more prevalent across time and space.

Contribution of causes of death to changing inequalities in life expectancy by income in Finland, 1997–2020

BackgroundSocioeconomic inequalities in mortality originate from different causes of death. Alcohol-related and smoking-related deaths are major drivers of mortality inequalities across Europe. In Finland, the turn from widening to narrowing...

Exploring inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan variation by race/ethnicity and urbanicity in the United States: 1990 to 2019

Background/ObjectiveInvestigating trends in life expectancy and lifespan variation can highlight disproportionate mortality burdens among population subgroups. We examined inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan variation by race/ethnicity and by urbanicity in the US from 1990 to 2019. MethodsUsing vital registration data for 322.0 million people in 3,141 counties from the National Center for Health Statistics, we obtained life expectancy at birth and lifespan variation for 16 race/ethnicity-gender-urbanicity combinations in six 5-year periods (1990–1994 to 2015–2019). Race/ethnicity was categorized as Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, Black, and Asian/Pacific Islander. Urbanicity was categorized as metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas, or in six further detailed categorizations. Life expectancy and lifespan variation (coefficient of variation) were computed using life tables. ResultsIn 2015–2019, residents in metropolitan areas had higher life expectancies than their nonmetropolitan counterparts (79.6 years compared to 77.0 years). The widest inequality in life expectancy occurred between Asian/Pacific Islander women and Black men, with a 17.7-year gap for residents in metropolitan areas and a 16.9-year gap for residents in nonmetropolitan areas. Nonmetropolitan areas had greater dispersion around average age at death. Black individuals had the highest lifespan variations in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Until the mid-2010s, life expectancy increased while lifespan variation decreased; however, recent trends show stagnation in life expectancy and increases in lifespan variation. Metropolitan-nonmetropolitan inequalities in both life expectancy and lifespan variation widened over time. ConclusionDespite previous improvements in longevity, life expectancy is now stagnating while lifespan variation is increasing. Our results highlight that early-life deaths (i.e., young- and middle-age mortality) disproportionately affect Black individuals, who not only live the shortest lifespans but also have the most variability with respect to age at death.

Stagnation of life expectancy in Korea in 2018: A cause-specific decomposition analysis.

According to the most recent annual report released by Korea Statistics, the life expectancy at birth (for both sexes) in 2018 was 82.7 years, an increase of 0.0 years over 2017, reflecting the first stagnation in life expectancy since 1960. In this study, a time-series analysis was conducted of trends in life expectancy from 2003 to 2018, and causes of death were analyzed using the Kannisto-Thatcher method and the Arriaga decomposition method. The time trend analysis of yearly life expectancy changes indicated that, in Korea, there was a tendency for the yearly increase in life expectancy between 2003 and 2018 to decrease by 0.0211 years per calendar year. The contribution of cardiovascular diseases, the most important contributor to the life expectancy increase in Korea, gradually decreased over this period. The contribution of cardiovascular diseases to the life expectancy increase was 0.506 years in 2003-2006, but this contribution decreased to 0.218 years in 2015-2018. The positive contributions of ill-defined causes and external causes to life expectancy increase detected in previous periods were not evident in 2015-2018. Diseases of the respiratory system made the largest negative contribution both between 2015 and 2018 and between 2017-2018. The life expectancy stagnation in 2018 could be understood as the combined effect of (a) decreasing momentum in the increase of life expectancy and (b) a chance event in 2018 involving life expectancy. Currently, it is difficult to judge whether the stagnation of life expectancy in 2018 is temporary, and further analyses of life expectancy and contributing causes of death in the future are needed.

Potential gains in life expectancy by reducing inequality of lifespans in Denmark: an international comparison and cause-of-death analysis

BackgroundReducing lifespan inequality is increasingly recognized as a health policy objective. Whereas lifespan inequality declined with rising longevity in most developed countries, Danish life expectancy stagnated between 1975 and 1995 for females and progressed slowly for males. It is unknown how Danish lifespan inequality changed, which causes of death drove these developments, and where the opportunities for further improvements lie now.MethodsWe present an analytical strategy based on cause-by-age decompositions to simultaneously analyze changes in Danish life expectancy and lifespan inequality from 1960 to 2014, as well as current Swedish-Danish differences.ResultsStagnation in Danish life expectancy coincided with a shorter period of stagnation in lifespan inequality (1975–1990). The stagnation in life expectancy was mainly driven by increases in cancer and non-infectious respiratory mortality at higher ages (−.63 years) offsetting a reduction in cardiovascular and infant mortality (+ 1.52 years). Lifespan inequality stagnated because most causes of death did not show compression over the time period. Both these observations were consistent with higher smoking-related mortality in Danes born in 1919–1939. After 1995, life expectancy and lifespan equality increased in lockstep, but still lag behind Sweden, mainly due to infant mortality and cancer.ConclusionsSince 1960, Danish improvements in life expectancy and lifespan equality were halted by smoking-related mortality in those born 1919–1939, while also reductions in old-age cardiovascular mortality held back lifespan equality. The comparison with Sweden suggests that Denmark can reduce inequality in lifespans and increase life expectancy through a consistent policy target: reducing cancer and infant mortality.

The increase of firearm mortality and its relationship with the stagnation of life expectancy in Mexico.

This study analyzes firearms mortality (FA) and their impact on life expectancy in Mexico -compared to other causes of deaths- during the three-year periods 2000-2002 and 2010-2012 and the weight of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL) due to this cause. Based on official death and population data, abridged life tables in Mexico were constructed for the three-year periods studied. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL for aged 15 to 75 by selected causes and age groups were calculated in each three-year period. Among men, FA mortality went from being the cause less YLEL caused in 2000-2002 to be the main cause of YLEL between 15 and 75 years in 2010-2012. Among women, YLEL for FA mortality had a higher relative growth. In both sexes, the greatest increase in YLEL by FA mortality was between 20 and 34 years. Findings indicate that the increase in FA mortality, especially among young people, has substantially contributed to the stagnation of life expectancy in recent years, and even his decline in the case of men. This reflects that violence linked to the FA is not only a security problem but also a collective health problem that must be copied in an interdisciplinary and intersectoral form if it is to increase the life expectancy of the country.

Why did Danish women's life expectancy stagnate? The influence of interwar generations' smoking behaviour.

The general health status of a population changes over time, generally in a positive direction. Some generations experience more unfavourable conditions than others. The health of Danish women in the interwar generations is an example of such a phenomenon. The stagnation in their life expectancy between 1977 and 1995 is thought to be related to their smoking behaviour. So far, no study has measured the absolute effect of smoking on the mortality of the interwar generations of Danish women and thus the stagnation in Danish women's life expectancy. We applied a method to estimate age-specific smoking-attributable number of deaths to examine the effect of smoking on the trends in partial life expectancy of Danish women between age 50 and 85 from 1950 to 2012. We compared these trends to those for women in Sweden, where there was no similar stagnation in life expectancy. When smoking-attributable mortality was excluded, the gap in partial life expectancy at age 50 between Swedish and Danish women diminished substantially. The effect was most pronounced in the interwar generations. The major reason for the stagnation in Danish women's partial life expectancy at age 50 was found to be smoking-related mortality in the interwar generations.

The stagnation of the Mexican male life expectancy in the first decade of the 21st century: the impact of homicides and diabetes mellitus

ObjectivesIn the first decade of the 21st century, the Mexican life expectancy changed from a long trend of increase to stagnation. These changes concur with an increase in deaths by...

Intergenerational family constellations in contemporary Europe

Abstract Demographic research has drawn attention to the multiple ways in which changes in mortality and childbearing have produced major shifts in intergenerational family structures. The aim of this article is to contribute to this body of research by analysing the data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for nine European countries. In the study, data pertaining to the availability of ascending (parents and grandparents) and descending (children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren) kin of each respondent are combined to shed light on the family structures in which individuals are embedded at various stages of their lives. The findings provide new insights into the ways in which various past and present demographic regimes come together to form specific intergenerational family constellation patterns across Europe. This convergence may yield family constellations of very similar heights in countries with sharply contrasting demographic histories. The results also indicate that certain demographic scenarios may halt or temporarily reverse the trend towards the further vertical extension of family constellations. 1. Introduction Intergenerational support within the family is recognised as being fundamentally important to individual well-being and social integration. Research investigating the foundations of changes in the family has drawn attention to ways in which variations in mortality, fertility, and nuptiality translate into major shifts in the number and configuration of ties through which intergenerational support is provided and received (Watkins, Menken, and Bongaarts 1987; Uhlenberg 1996; Murphy and Grundy 2003). According to a widely accepted theory of family change during the transition to the modern demographic regime, declines in mortality and fertility have resulted in the verticalisation of family structures: i.e., more generations are alive, but with fewer members in each generation (Bengtson, Rosenthal, and Burton 1990). Demographic transition theorists (Notestein 1953; Kirk 1996) expected the shifttowards the modern demographic regime to result in a new equilibrium between low levels of mortality and fertility. However, developments have not occurred as forecast. Following a brief respite provided by the post-war baby boom, fertility resumed its decline and fell below replacement levels (Frejka and Sardon 2004; Frejka and Sobotka 2008). Although the 2000s have witnessed some recovery, fertility remains under replacement in virtually all of the countries of Europe (Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009). With regard to longevity, predictions about stagnation in life expectancy have not been realised, and mortality has continued to decline even in countries with the highest life expectancy (Oeppen and Vaupel 2002; Vallin and Mesle 2009). These developments continue to transform family constellations, with significant implications for well-being and social integration, but the nature and extent of these changes is relatively poorly charted. A major reason for this lack of knowledge is related to the availability of data, since a comprehensive understanding of family structures cannot be derived from conventional sources of demographic information. Measures based on vital statistics are indispensable for describing trends in mortality and fertility; however, they appear to have limited ability to provide insight into the ways in which the different processes interact, affect families, and shape lives. The measures based on household units that are prevalent in censuses and surveys usually disregard non-co-residing family members. Family demographers have devised different strategies for analysing kin networks beyond the household. One frequently used approach relies on simulation models that provide estimates of kin networks under a specified demographic regime (Le Bras 1973; Bongaarts, Burch, and Wachter 1987; Smith and Oeppen 1993; Van Imhoffand Post 1998). …

Mortality Trends and the Epidemiological Transition in Nauru

This article aims to examine the epidemiological transition in Nauru through analysis of available mortality data. Mortality data from death certificates and published material were used to construct life tables and calculate age-standardized mortality rates (from 1960) with 95% confidence intervals. Proportional mortality was calculated from 1947. Female life expectancy (LE) varied from 57 to 61 years with no significant trend. Age-standardized mortality for males (15-64 years) doubled from 1960-1970 to 1976-1981 and then decreased to 1986-1992, with LE fluctuating since then from 49 to 54 years. Proportional mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes increased substantially, reaching more than 30%. Nauru demonstrates a very long period of stagnation in life expectancy in both males and females as a consequence of the epidemiological transition, with major chronic disease mortality in adults showing no sustained downward trends over 40 years. Potential overinterpretation of trends from previous data due to lack of confidence intervals was highlighted.

The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full-income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China’s takeoff relative to India’s due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.